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October 31, 2004
Electoral Votes shows Bush Ahead
Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004. As Andy says, it sometimes doesn't pay to look at all the polls. Today, it shows Bush will win decisively with 263 electoral votes to 248 in their October 30 Averaged Polls
This uses a really complex averaging scheme that attempts to eliminate biased polls. The big issue is Florida (27 votes) which is too close to call and the fact that Ohio is going to Bush (20 votes)
Oh well, as he says, you just have to stay optimistic. There is lots of bias in various polls and it is not clear how to calculate, but it looks like essentialy it is a dead heat with 47% to 47%, but the key question is who will actually turn out.
Osama's video IMHO is bad for Kerry because it reminds us the boogie man is out there and Kerry looses on this issue. OTOH, can the news in Iraq be worse. Another 9 brave Marines died today and so it goes. Three days left.
Posted by rich at October 31, 2004 01:42 AM
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