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May 14, 2004

Notes from Jason. Don't lost Hope on Kerry just yet

I asked Jason" his opinion on the campaign. Brilliant comments that he allows us all to see. While I agree on the timing and tactics, we are all debating the punchiness of the messages

Rich asked me to write some notes on the general cycle of Presidential campaigns and where we currently are in that cycle -- or, put differently, why Kerry seems to be so quiet right now.

My background in writing this is working on rapid response and communications for Clinton's 1992 and 1996 campaigns and writing my college thesis way back when on the role of the media in presidential campaigns. I'd be happy to discuss in more detail with anyone who has additional
questions or who is just curious about the topic...it's been a long time since I lived and breathed politics, and it's fun to wade back into it.

CAMPAIGN MEDIA COVERAGE

In a presidential campaign, the hardest thing to manage is the "when," "how," and "what" with regards to media coverage.

What most outside observers do not realize is that a candidate such as Kerry (and even Bush) says many great things every day which are not reported by the press. One major reason for this "lack of coverage" is because the reporters who cover each candidate are with them pretty much every waking hour of every day. As such, they hear their candidate say the same thing over and over and over and over again -- and unless it is truly groundbreaking, it isn't deemed "new" and "newsworthy." ...

The above is especially true during periods when the news is dominated by other events (e.g. Iraq). As a reporter, when you travel with Kerry every day and hear him bash Bush again and again and again, it just isn't new each time ... and it certainly isn't worth arguing to your editor that it's worth
bumping a story of prison abuse in iraq off of page 1.

So, instead of trying to "be the story," a common tactic during periods such as this is to "get into the story." One or two sentences along the lines of, "and Bush's rival John Kerry called for ____" is deemed a success vs. being left out of the news entirely.

CAMPAIGN CYCLES

During the typical presidential campaign, there are five major cycles, each of which culminate in major news coverage:

1. Primary -- the intrigue of who wins (lasts until the winner is declared)
2. Running mate -- the intrigue of who gets picked (gets you a week of coverage)
3. Convention -- no longer such a big deal since there's no associated controversy (gets you a day or two of coverage)
4. Debates -- the intrigue of a prize fight (3 weeks of coverage if the challenger dictates the schedule; 2 weeks if the incumbent sets the pace -- really determined via negotiation between the two parties the week or two before the debates; whoever has a more commanding lead has leverage in the
   negotiation)
5. Election day -- the intrigue of who wins (final week of coverage.)

In most years, primary lasts until June, then running mate speculation carries you until July, then convention in July/August, then debates in Sept, Oct, then election in November.

In 1996 when there was a strong incumbent, and in 2004 when there is a semi-strong incumbent, things get condensed:

• This time around, the Dems knew that they had to lock up the primary quickly in order to make sure that the nominee could raise enough money to compete with Bush.
• The Republicans, knowing that the Dems would have to pick a candidate early, purposely moved their convention out to an unprecedented September -- leaving a HUGE hole from March to August when Kerry would have to literally STRUGGLE to get coverage.

During this 6 month quiet period, Kerry basically gets one freebie news story (picking his running mate) and the rest is all opportunistic (e.g. pouncing on Bush when makes a gaffe, and then "getting into the story").

In fact, the WORST thing that Kerry could do now is to announce major new policies or new lines of attack. Why? Because they will get lost in the non-campaign news stories (e.g. Iraq) and then when Kerry tries to "re-announce" them in September when the spotlight is actually on him, the
reporters traveling with him will say to themselves, "big deal, I've heard him say this a zillion times..."

So, key things Kerry does during this period:
# Above all, RAISE MONEY so that the message breaks through in September - October when it counts
# Shore up the base. Dems are pretty much guaranteed a 42% share of voters vs. 40% for Republicans - if hard core Dems turn out in November. That's a big IF - Kerry has to ensure that as many of the die-hards are touched during this period, are believers, are motivated, etc.
# Stay in the story. Little quips and digs here and there in response to Bush are actually more effective right now then bold speeches and policy statements.
# Let Bush Kill Himself. When Bush is in trouble, STAY OUT OF THE WAY.
# Lay the groundwork. Build a credible portfolio of policies so that when the big speeches come in the fall, the reporters say, "this guy has a solid history of supporting this stuff and the ideas, plans, and policies to back it up."
# Plan for the 8%. Sept - Nov is all about the undecided 8%. That's when it matters.

Posted by rich at May 14, 2004 10:52 PM

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