November 08, 2004

Why you have to just win the vote with issues

. Great points about how the Hispanic vote went Republican. Core issues were abortion and gay marriage against the conservatives and religious.

Posted by rich at 10:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 06, 2004

First seek to understand

. Well folks in the Democratic party already have tons of prescriptions. From our experience as marketing people, that doesn't make much sense. First seek to understand and then to be understood. This book I think begins to help.

Also understanding moderate Republicans also does. Finding things they want and giving it to them is key. Rather than trying to convince folks.

This book is really required reading, I think before you can talk about solutions for 2008. It is interesting to see how many folks have come to me with answers before they know what people want.

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November 02, 2004

Post Election

CIC Canada | Immigrate to Canada. Can you believe that Connie seriously asked me about this.

We'll see if it isn't a good backup plan :-) It never hurts to be prepared for dual citizenship

Posted by rich at 08:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Post Election

CIC Canada | Immigrate to Canada. Can you believe that Connie seriously asked me about this.

We'll see if it isn't a good backup plan :-) It never hurts to be prepared.

Posted by rich at 08:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Mobile and CNN Portal for Election Results

RTV Mobile Portal. Rock the Volt is running a cool mobile portal. Key in www.rtvmo.com into your so friendly wap browser to see what's happening.

CNN is going to have updates as well and they have just an awesome portal for election results where you can look at races you want and see the overall electoral map.

Did you know Electoral-Vote.com is run by Andrew Tanenbaum. I learned most of my computer science from his textbooks. He lives in the Netherlands now and runs a pretty cool systems program. Focused on security. Kind of neat that it is a real hitter in computer science doing the estimates.

.

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November 01, 2004

Latest Polls

Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004. Well this guy was up all night compiling polls. There were no less than 50 done on Halloween.

Here is how it looks Kerry 298 to Bush 231. The big variables are that Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida are all statistically tied. He's estimating that Pennsylvania will probably go Kerry and Ohio to Bush, so it is Florida all over again.

Most interesting data is on the youth vote. Zogby did an SMS poll of 3,000 young votes, they were 55% Kerry. But, no one knows if they'll actually show up at the polls or have a brewski and watch starsky and hutch.

In some ways it is great that so much depends on folks that we are leaving the country too. Now let's see if people are motivated to actually vote. Registration is easy, you do it in line at the university bookstore, but voting is different.

Fingers crossed.

Posted by rich at 10:29 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 31, 2004

I'm so dizzy

Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004. In one day, the projections completely flipped again proving that the election is so close, no one knows what will happen on Tuesday. On Saturday, Bush was going to win with 280 votes, not Kerry is going to win with 280.

I don't know what to think

Posted by rich at 10:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Defeating vs. Creating Terrorists

The Choice: Different Instincts About Leadership (washingtonpost.com)

The best summary I've seen for why the election is so polarized. Iraq is a Rorschach test

Back last summer, John F. Kerry made an observation that struck him and his partisans as so self-evidently true it could hardly be disputed. The Democratic nominee said the U.S. intervention in Iraq so far has done more to recruit terrorists than to defeat them.

President Bush reacted with a disdain and disbelief that no one who heard it could doubt was genuine. "I don't think they need an excuse for their hatred and their evil hearts. You do not create terrorists by fighting back; you defeat the terrorists by fighting back."

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Washington Post Map

washingtonpost.com - Electoral College Map. Their map as of early Sunday was more honest in that it showed the states as too close to call.

Net, net, Bush 227, Kerry 232 with 79 up for grabs.

The up for grabs includes Florida (27), Ohio (20), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5).

Their Sunday article is great.

In terms of state-by-state data, interesting news includes:

Now if Michigan stays Democratic and Bush/Kerry split Florida and Ohio, then the Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa races become important. Gore won all three last time, but Kerry isn't even a Gore here.

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Animated Electoral Vote Map

2004 Electoral Vote Animation. Nerds revenge, this takes the state by state changes over since May 24th and puts it into an animated map.

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For Balance, a Republican Biased Count

Election Projection - 2004 Edition. Here are the final projections from a Republican source.

His main point here is that conservatives will come out in droves as well. Lots of those folks stayed home last time. About 4M.

He projects Bush 296, Kerry 242 and the popular vote to be Bush 49.9% and Kerry 48.3%, so also within statistical dead heat.

The big differences are of course Florida and Ohio going to Bush.

Ohter interesting polls are job approval ratings for Bush which range average 50.2% (if you can believe that) as of 10/20-10/22.

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Electoral Votes shows Bush Ahead

Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004. As Andy says, it sometimes doesn't pay to look at all the polls. Today, it shows Bush will win decisively with 263 electoral votes to 248 in their October 30 Averaged Polls

This uses a really complex averaging scheme that attempts to eliminate biased polls. The big issue is Florida (27 votes) which is too close to call and the fact that Ohio is going to Bush (20 votes)

Oh well, as he says, you just have to stay optimistic. There is lots of bias in various polls and it is not clear how to calculate, but it looks like essentialy it is a dead heat with 47% to 47%, but the key question is who will actually turn out.

Osama's video IMHO is bad for Kerry because it reminds us the boogie man is out there and Kerry looses on this issue. OTOH, can the news in Iraq be worse. Another 9 brave Marines died today and so it goes. Three days left.

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NowChannel.com

NowChannel.com: 2.004k: What's New. Wow, another great polling source so you can read what you will.

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October 25, 2004

Last Minute Donations

If you're still not sleep at night (as I am not) because you've read the New York Times on Marines in Ramadi fighting like it is in Vietnam or Imperial Hubris an inside look into the CIA that will soon be shutdown by the Bush Administration, then nows the time to get out and donate.

Here are some of the places:

If you want to contribute in other ways, then ACT For Victory gives you ways to volunteer and get out there and make a difference.
*

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October 22, 2004

Simply Incredible What Bush supporter think on foreign policy

Christian Science Monitor on what Bush vs. Kerry supporters think on foreign policy. Simply incredible

The most striking differences that the poll finds are on Iraq. Large percentages of Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction before the war, and that Iraq was providing substantial support to Al Qaeda. Large percentages of Kerry supporters hold the opposite view. And most Bush supporters believe experts back their views, even after a string of high-profile reports that concluded the contrary. More broadly, the survey finds that Bush backers support a string of controversial international treaties, including the Kyoto climate-change accords. A slight majority believes the president supports them as well - even though he does not.

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527s

527s: The Major Players. I was bad and didn't contribute to one of these, so its probably too late, but interesting to see who contributed what.

Its kind of cool to see that guys like Peter Lewis put their money where their mouth is. As did Rob Glaser and Andy Rappaport (I'm liking August Capital better all the time!)

Posted by rich at 02:41 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Estimating Electoral Votes

Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 and Election Projection. Don't know how accurate this is, but this is one site that is predicting the vote. But basically the two sites (one Kerry and the other Bush) are predicting exactly opposite results.

Its interesting to see how close the popular vote could be but to see how wide the electoral one is likely to be.

That's because of the winner-take-all view.

Makes me really think that the electoral college should get the heave ho.

Also being dumb, I never realized that Texas had more electoral votes than New York. Or that Arizona has 10 votes and Washington state has 11. Wow, our state is actually kind of bit :-)

And, yes, it is an incredibly close election with most the country really "red states." Wow there are lots of places I could never live.

Posted by rich at 02:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 19, 2004

Atlantic Monthly scores again

I haven't read the Atlantic Monthly in a long time, but picked it up on a plane. I have to say I thought the October issue was incredible. I must be getting old and liberal because the articles seemed so spot on.

The latest November issue about the Green Zone reads exactly like Saigon in 1964 don't folks think?

Also James Fallows' piece on the Lost Year that covers what might have been in 2002 is really insightful. I've been reading him for a long time when he was in Japan, but haven't read much since.

Posted by rich at 09:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

more polling data

More polling data from brad

Slate polls

Posted by rich at 10:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

whos ahead?

it seems to come down to registered voters versus likely voters and the methodology/guesswork to go from the first category to the second

NY Times

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September 08, 2004

Criteria for Electable Folks

It sure has been an interesting election. Its the first time that most of us have contributed to a campaign. Getting close to the DNC, Kerry and Move-on/ACT has been super interesting. I have no idea how the election is going to turn out, but I have to say that the Republicans have done a very good job running a drag race, but that the Democrats have mainly done just a terrible job.

Speaking as pure marketing kind of guy, I originally thought that politics was quite different from winning a drag race between two products. Now I have to say that I'm wrong. The same lessons I learned from the "Marketing Playbook":http://marketingplaybook.com seem to apply.

Since I'm getting all kinds of solicitations now. Heck, even a gubernatorial candidate called me personally, just wanted to post my manifesto for how I'll decide to back someone. It's a little contrarian in that it isn't about what they believe, but more about can they win.

So, here are the top things in order I'd ask before backing anyone:

# Team. Do they have a team that has won that office before. Most folks I've noticed take the chance to go from winning the Senate to winning the Presidency as the great career opportunity of the lifetime. IMHO, stay away from these candidates. They can't win vs. an experienced team. It reminds me of the who-ever-the-heck it is on Kerry vs. Karl Rove & Co. on the Republican side. Winning an election is not a resume builder and I don't want to back someone who is learning on the job. So, question one is all about really, does the candidate care enough to win that he'll bring in folks who have won before. BTW its the same thing in investing. There is a big difference between the CEO who can distinguish betweens his needs in a small business vs. what he needs when the business grows big.
# Message. Most people seem to focus on the need for money, but as the Swift Boat Veterans have shown, you don't need much money if the message is potent. To me, BTW that is why the Team is so important. Great teams know what is newsworthy. I find that most B teams spend most of their times looking at polls and figuring out what the electorate things or has thought. The great A teams know by experience what people will feel before the information is introduced. Having a message set, knowing the thrust and parry, that's to me what creates success. So, the first question, is does the politician have a simple message that captures the imagination. Sort of like Bush's, "I'm an honest guy you can trust to keep you safe." BTW, this is not about sloganeering. Saying we can do better is not a message, its a slogan.
# Desire. Will you do what it takes to win. The best recent example in my mind is Arnold winning the California Governorship, there is one guy who understands, you give people what they want to hear. You want lower taxes, we'll lower them. You want more services, you''ll get that too. Of course, the recent budget passed is nearly identical to what Davis proposed with the exception that you push most of the debt into the future. So the next question for me is, are you smart enough to give people what they want. It is not about explaining that things are grey and sacrifices are going to be made. That's not how you sell a product, personally I don't think it is how you win an election.
# Executive Experience. Are you the kind of person who is part of the congress or are you an executive type that has won hard elections against the other party. With all the gerrymandering of districts, its hard to believe there are any competitive congressional elections anymore, so you're not really tested. Also, being a governor means you know how to make a decision not compromise. I was doing some counting and I think the last thirty years, everyone who has won was a governor and essentially all the losers were senators (Carter - Georgia, Reagan - California, Bush -maybe the exception beat Dukakis but see rule #1 above, Clinton - Arkansas, Bush - Texas). There is something to that I think. Governors seem to know how to win vs. compromise and see the world as gray.

Posted by rich at 11:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 06, 2004

Democrats Across the Board Are Pleased

NY Times on the Conventions

"I can't even think of a single really dissonant note in four days,'' Carter Eskew, a top strategist for Al Gore's campaign in 2000, said. "I don't think there's been a convention in history in which that's true. We sat there in 2000 and looked at how Bush was able to tack to the middle with absolutely no blowback from the core constituencies of the Republican Party and said we should only be so lucky. Guess what? John Kerry is that guy."

Even the opposition was impressed.

"It's so tough for me to say to you on the record, and by that you know what I think," a Republican operative said when asked how Mr. Kerry did on Thursday." I think Kerry had a terrific convention. He presented an image that will be attractive to independents and undecideds. The convention was successful in giving the leopard new spots. For people who are just meeting Kerry for the first time, they made it tougher for our attacks to stick."

Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster who set up a focus group in Cincinnati for MSNBC, said 14 of the 20 undecided voters in the room gave Mr. Kerry high marks, with 4 who cast ballots for Mr. Bush in 2000 switching by night's end.

Posted by rich at 05:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 01, 2004

johnkerry.com is way better!

Wow, they've done an incredibly better job on the Kerry website. Kudos to whoever is working on it. Some of the great changes include getting rid of this strange Kerry Core idea and making that just volunteers. This now includes volunteering and fundraising.

They have a single page now that is your dashboard for all the way to get involved. As reminder, you can still contribute to the campaign in four ways:

Posted by rich at 02:36 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

July 30, 2004

Kerry Speech

Well I was wrong, Kerry I thought did a great job. There were some really great positionings in this. Taking the high road was smart.

The highlights in my point of view were from the Kerry speech:

Some great excerpts:

We can do better and we will. We're the optimists. For us, this is a country of the future. We're the can do people. And let's not forget what we did in the 1990s. We balanced the budget. We paid down the debt. We created 23 million new jobs. We lifted millions out of poverty and we lifted the standard of living for the middle class. We just need to believe in ourselves -- and we can do it again.

I defended this country as a young man and I will defend it as President. Let there be no mistake: I will never hesitate to use force when it is required. Any attack will be met with a swift and certain response. I will never give any nation or international institution a veto over our national security. And I will build a stronger American military._For four years, we've heard a lot of talk about values. But values spoken without actions taken are just slogans. Values are not just words. They're what we live by. They're about the causes we champion and the people we fight for. And it is time for those who talk about family values to start valuing families.

_

BTW for those you wondering, right now you can see the live speech by
Podium Videos - Tuesday - 2004 Democratic National Convention Official Site.

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July 29, 2004

Barack Obama's Speech

USATODAY.com - Barack Obama's remarks at the Democratic convention. An amazingly impressive speech by all. Here's the original text.

It is sad that even with hundreds of millions spent, there really isn't a simple slogan and explanation for Kerry. Maybe it will come out tonight.

If I were him, I'd be shameless and steal from the best quote so far. Very hard for politicans (or marketing people for that matter alike) to do that I know. One of the hardest things to do is to just copy what is good.

Kerry apparently is spending 30 minutes a day working on his speech. To me, not a great sign, kind of thing is hard to get right and you need professionals to help you. Having given presentations, I can tell you that for the average person it doesn't come naturally and it is really hard, but super worthwhile to get critiqued and honest feedback.

So here's my vote on slogan:

Well, I say to them tonight, there's not a liberal America and a conservative America — there's the United States of America. There's not a black America and white America and Latino America and Asian America; there's the United States of America.

Posted by rich at 04:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 23, 2004

May 26: Kerry Fundraiser in Seattle

Come to the Kerry fundraiser. Get the country back in balance. Here's how:

See Free-Return: Contributions for details on how contributions work.

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May 20, 2004

Great quotes

Hat tip to Homestead Products for some great quotes and words to the wise

"'Necessity' is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves." -William Pitt, 1783

"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." -Abraham Lincoln

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." -Benjamin Franklin, 1759

"Actions are held to be good or bad, not on their own merits, but according to who does them, and there is almost no kind of outrage -- torture, the use of hostages, forced labour, mass deportations, imprisonment without trial, forgery, assassination, the bombing of civilians -- which does not change its moral colour when it is committed by "our" side... The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them." -George Orwell, 1945

Posted by rich at 09:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 18, 2004

Election Strategy

Talking Points Memo: by Joshua Micah Marshall: May 16, 2004 - May 22, 2004 Archives. Josh more or less echoes what Jason has said about Kerry keeping down and quiet. As well as the point that approval ratings can't slip below 40% in this polarized country of ours. A good read.

Posted by rich at 12:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 16, 2004

Approval ratings falling

Eschaton. Clearly approval ratings are dipping into the 42-46% range, although I think they'll bounce up just because there will be such tight security on photos and things that the news will get controlled.

It is depressing to me that the government basically doesn't want any photos of the war to come out.

And you have to remember about 40% of the country are absolutely hard core Republicans who'd vote the Easter Bunny if he was in office, so I don't see how it can go much lower than this.

Posted by rich at 12:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 14, 2004

Notes from Jason. Don't lost Hope on Kerry just yet

I asked Jason" his opinion on the campaign. Brilliant comments that he allows us all to see. While I agree on the timing and tactics, we are all debating the punchiness of the messages

Rich asked me to write some notes on the general cycle of Presidential campaigns and where we currently are in that cycle -- or, put differently, why Kerry seems to be so quiet right now.

My background in writing this is working on rapid response and communications for Clinton's 1992 and 1996 campaigns and writing my college thesis way back when on the role of the media in presidential campaigns. I'd be happy to discuss in more detail with anyone who has additional
questions or who is just curious about the topic...it's been a long time since I lived and breathed politics, and it's fun to wade back into it.

CAMPAIGN MEDIA COVERAGE

In a presidential campaign, the hardest thing to manage is the "when," "how," and "what" with regards to media coverage.

What most outside observers do not realize is that a candidate such as Kerry (and even Bush) says many great things every day which are not reported by the press. One major reason for this "lack of coverage" is because the reporters who cover each candidate are with them pretty much every waking hour of every day. As such, they hear their candidate say the same thing over and over and over and over again -- and unless it is truly groundbreaking, it isn't deemed "new" and "newsworthy." ...

The above is especially true during periods when the news is dominated by other events (e.g. Iraq). As a reporter, when you travel with Kerry every day and hear him bash Bush again and again and again, it just isn't new each time ... and it certainly isn't worth arguing to your editor that it's worth
bumping a story of prison abuse in iraq off of page 1.

So, instead of trying to "be the story," a common tactic during periods such as this is to "get into the story." One or two sentences along the lines of, "and Bush's rival John Kerry called for ____" is deemed a success vs. being left out of the news entirely.

CAMPAIGN CYCLES

During the typical presidential campaign, there are five major cycles, each of which culminate in major news coverage:

  1. Primary -- the intrigue of who wins (lasts until the winner is declared)
  2. Running mate -- the intrigue of who gets picked (gets you a week of coverage)
  3. Convention -- no longer such a big deal since there's no associated controversy (gets you a day or two of coverage)
  4. Debates -- the intrigue of a prize fight (3 weeks of coverage if the challenger dictates the schedule; 2 weeks if the incumbent sets the pace -- really determined via negotiation between the two parties the week or two before the debates; whoever has a more commanding lead has leverage in the
    negotiation)
  5. Election day -- the intrigue of who wins (final week of coverage.)

In most years, primary lasts until June, then running mate speculation carries you until July, then convention in July/August, then debates in Sept, Oct, then election in November.

In 1996 when there was a strong incumbent, and in 2004 when there is a semi-strong incumbent, things get condensed:

During this 6 month quiet period, Kerry basically gets one freebie news story (picking his running mate) and the rest is all opportunistic (e.g. pouncing on Bush when makes a gaffe, and then "getting into the story").

In fact, the WORST thing that Kerry could do now is to announce major new policies or new lines of attack. Why? Because they will get lost in the non-campaign news stories (e.g. Iraq) and then when Kerry tries to "re-announce" them in September when the spotlight is actually on him, the
reporters traveling with him will say to themselves, "big deal, I've heard him say this a zillion times..."

So, key things Kerry does during this period:
# Above all, RAISE MONEY so that the message breaks through in September - October when it counts
# Shore up the base. Dems are pretty much guaranteed a 42% share of voters vs. 40% for Republicans - if hard core Dems turn out in November. That's a big IF - Kerry has to ensure that as many of the die-hards are touched during this period, are believers, are motivated, etc.
# Stay in the story. Little quips and digs here and there in response to Bush are actually more effective right now then bold speeches and policy statements.
# Let Bush Kill Himself. When Bush is in trouble, STAY OUT OF THE WAY.
# Lay the groundwork. Build a credible portfolio of policies so that when the big speeches come in the fall, the reporters say, "this guy has a solid history of supporting this stuff and the ideas, plans, and policies to back it up."
# Plan for the 8%. Sept - Nov is all about the undecided 8%. That's when it matters.

Posted by rich at 10:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Free Return has a mailing list

Stophim Info Page. We are sending a weekly email on the status of our group here in Seattle. If you'd like to join, just click on the Info link and see the section on subscribing to stophim.

Posted by rich at 10:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Kerry Coming to Seattle May 26

The date and time are finally set for this. Here it is. If you have questions, just drop us a comment here.

Wednesday, May 26th
5:30pm

Westin Hotel~ Grand Ballroom
1900 Fifth Avenue
Seattle, Washington

Co-Chair $25,000 ~ contribute or raise*
Table Captain ~ 10 seats at $1000 or $2000 *
Gold Circle Guest $2000
Silver Circle Guest $1000
*There will be a private Co-Chair reception
*There will be a Table Captain photo reception

Posted by rich at 09:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 11, 2004

Voting for Kerry

JohnKerryIsADoucheBagButImVotingForHimAnyway.com. OK, so I just had to post this because it is such a good URL.

I have to say thought that today, I had two very smart people tell me the same thing and it is a little depressing:

So, the depressing fact is that I can't say in 30 seconds why vote for Kerry, except to say, "Don't vote for Bush". Is that sad or what given the millions. Its most depressing when I see sites like the above that are so clear about the issues (in order Out of Iraq, Better Tax Cuts, Just Warrior) by a college student. If, only they could just say three words, oh well.

Fact is a little does of ABCs would sure help the campaign, but in reaching out to those folks, they've already told us politely, we are way smarter than you, let the professionals run it. So since this is just the web, let me give it a try, I'll be Kerry for a day.

ABCs

What's the situation? Yes, the current incumbent nearly always wins elections particularly with massive fiscal and monetary stimulus ($700B deficits if you include Iraq, 0.5% interest rates) and the opposition is disorganized and fuzzy. But, if Kerry just runs a Drag Race play against Bush as anti-war, anti-tax cut, anti-definite, he loses. So, why not be against, Bush, but be Bush Pro. That is, be even more war oriented, tax cut oriented and definite?

So, here you get the XYZ (the positioning), X. Kerry is the Presidient who will be even stronger on security and more aggressive in cutting taxes than Bush while being honest and believeing in a just war.

So, that's the cunumdrum, how do you do this? Well, here's a start at three messages:

Posted by rich at 12:26 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

May 06, 2004

Latest Polls

The Agonist: Polls. Wow Agonist really keeps up:

WSJ/NBC: The Republican incumbent's approval rating slipped to 47%, the lowest of his presidency, while a 49% plurality of voters say he doesn't deserve a second term. By a 50%-to-33% margin, voters say the nation is headed in the wrong direction.

The survey also documents the toll that violence and disorder in Iraq have taken on Americans' confidence. Though six in 10 continue to back Mr. Bush's decision to oust Saddam Hussein, a 47% plurality says the war wasn't worth its human and financial costs to the U.S.

Gallup: Americans are more dissatisfied with the nation's direction than at any time in more than eight years and President Bush's job approval rating has sunk into a tie for his worst-ever showing.

And possibly more surprising (to me, anyway), a majority of Americans — 52% — still approve of the way Bush is handling terrorism. However, that is the lowest figure since Gallup began asking the question in November 2001, and a 45% disapproval rating is the highest such number.

Posted by rich at 06:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Modest Proposal: Should The Democrats Default?

MarcCooper.com. A nice idea. Just default and let it all happen. Wishful thinking.

Posted by rich at 12:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Depressing if true...

JD's New Media Musings: Disney blocks Moore's 'Fahrenheit 911'. Also heard this in NPR. Apparently, Eisner is worried that Jeb Bush will deny tax breaks to Disney so he suppresses Fahrenheit 911.

Makes me really excited about watching it. Hopefully, it will leak on the Internet so we can see what was so nuclear.

Posted by rich at 12:13 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Following the polls

Taegan Goddard's Political Wire. A nice site from someone following the polls closely.

Posted by rich at 12:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 05, 2004

Latest Poll

MyDD :: General 2004. I never know how to read these polls and whether they are right. In any case, this is a close election. From Mydd.com:

National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.0
Bush: 50.0

Status: Too Close to Call
Kerry has made up nearly two points as a result of Bush's recent dip in job approval. In particular, the new Q-poll was worse for Bush than the now old Pew poll.

Electoral Vote Projection:
Kerry: 231
Bush: 227
To Close to Call: 80 (FL, IA, NM, OH, PA)

Kerry is only up two in the latest Oregon poll, but he is nine ahead of Bush on favorable / unfavorable ratings in the state, and Bush's approval ratings are, um, not good (5% rate his performance as "excellent"). Thus, Oregon is now "lean Kerry." Combine this with the latest NH poll, Kerry has taken his first, very slim lead in the two weeks I have been calculating the GECC.

Posted by rich at 11:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 03, 2004

BAD TIMES BUT A GREAT NIGHTLINE.

Last Friday night while doing my late night reading, I had Nightline, the reading of the fallen, running in the background. As Ted Koppel named each person who had died in the Iraq War, I periodically glanced at the screen. Soon, I was glued to the tube.

What struck me were the ages of those who've served and died. Many were in their 30's and 40's. Highly reminiscent of the EARLIEST days of Viet Nam when career soldiers were there, dying, and the numbers were small.

It was during the early "Viet Nam Conflict" when I'd guess few Americans actually knew someone, even 2-3 degrees away, who had fallen. Yet, in a targeted way across America the "Conflict" had hit home and was very REAL.

I lived in a small town. I vaguely remember one of our neighboring towns had an early Viet Nam casualty. I was around Jr. High age. My parents knew the family and the dead pilot left behind a wife and young kids. I remember the pain on my parent's faces and heard the "whispers" as they discussed it. By the time I was graduating high school six years later, Viet Nam seemed like a slaughter house for those "unfortunate enough" to get drafted.

By then it seemed EVERYONE knew someone who was serving, had been
wounded or had fallen.

I couldn't help but wonder if we would have had a Nightline broadcast with that size of audience reach back in 1966, one so capable of personalizing the war on behalf of the early "fallen", would we have been better able to avoid the buzz saw of Viet Nam's momentum in the 70's?

As for Sinclair Broadcasting opting not to broadcast Nightline's reading of the fallen across the ABC Affiliates it owns, because they felt "it isn't in the public interest." Unbelievable. Time and again I find it remarkable that Americans forget that WE own the broadcast airwaves. At a minimum the families of The Fallen who wanted the broadcast should demand that the FCC yank Sinclair's licenses. Many Americans would support them.

Think about it, showing The Bachelor, The Bachelorette, Survivor, and Extreme Makeover are in the "public interest"?! Having Ted Koppel read names of those killed in Iraq isn't?!

As ABC's own 20/20 John Stossel would say:

Give Me a Break!!!!!

Posted by rich at 09:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

TO GUARANTEE A WIN, KERRY MUST HIRE THE RAGIN' CAJUN!

Hopefully, the Sunday NY Times was a wake-up call for John Kerry.

KERRY STRUGGLING TO FIND THEME, DEMOCRATS FEAR. For the moment, the Kerry Campaign team has the Senator looking like the candidate who can't shoot straight. It's unacceptable they have NOT yet: 1.) Built a credible and robust field organization and 2.) Opened a campaign War Room staffed with pros.

It's time to get James Carville, the Ragin' Cajun, in the saddle. Carville should be calling ALL the shots in the Kerry campaign.

If that were the case and Carville had all those easy targets that Bush has served to Kerry; worsening Iraq, a new book released each day by a former aide, etc., well... as James would say, "it would be like shootin' fish in the barrel!"

Left without a Big Gun, Kerry's current Ready, Fire, Aim Squad may only hit one big target by November...its foot.

Memo to John Kerry: Have Mary Beth Cahill call Blockbuster and rent WAR ROOM, the documentary about the team who last ran a Bush out of the White House. While she watches it with her team and they learn how to understand Cajun, ..SENATOR PLEASE CALL CARVILLE!

A campaign donation is a terrible thing to waste.

Posted by at 08:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 02, 2004

Contributions

Free-Return: Campaign contributions basics. Some folks were asking if they missed a fundraiser, what to do.

No problem, these campaigns are so cyber now, it doesn't matter. Just click on:

Posted by rich at 10:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 30, 2004

The Fallen on Nightline

ABCNEWS.com : Reading Names of Dead Service Members. An incredible brave thing for ABC to do. They did a special on the 700 Americans who have died in Iraq.

Online Memorial and Washington Post. For a real heart breaker, check out Faces of the Fallen. It catalogs all 700 people who have died in Iraq so far.
.

Posted by rich at 10:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 29, 2004

Mailing List!

free-return.com Mailing Lists. Hey for those of you interested, we're starting an email list in addition to the blog. This will have digest and emergency notices as well as the regular weekly status for the group. Click on the link above and ask to be added now.

Posted by rich at 10:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 25, 2004

Fundrace 2004: Who contributed what...

Fundrace2004 is a wonderfully interesting application that takes the campaign contribution data from 1/03 to 2/04 and splits it by zipcode and state.

Very interesting to plug in your zip code and see who gave what where and the addresses too! It even has a nearest neighbor function so you can click on someone and see geographically where other contributers are.

Posted by rich at 12:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Election 2004: Where we are...

Two amazing sites that show the state of the world:

"opensecrets.org":http://www.opensecrets.org/presidential/. Gives a good overview. The basic facts are that in a typical election, Republicans raise 2x what Democrats do. In this one, the numbers are even more stunning

George W. Bush: $185,074,755
John Kerry: $85,586,243

BTW, if you think that was an aberrations, the "2000":http://www.opensecrets.org/2000elect/index/AllCands.htm election was actually more even because Bush was the challenger:

| Candidate | Raised | Fed Matching | Spent | Leftover |
| Bush | $193,088,650 | $67,560,000 | $185,921,855 | $7,201,734 |
| Gore | $132,804,039 | $83,016,084 | $120,031,205 | $12,772,827 |

Posted by rich at 12:13 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Campaign contributions basics

Most folks are having a hard time figuring out what. I have to say I find the actual Kerry site to be incredibly obtuse. Like most overdesigned sites, it has a huge tab bar on the left and there is no search engine on so you can't find things. Here's the decoder ring using opensecrets.org. The best list of basics that I can find, although this doesn't cover the new 527 organizations, so you don't have to read the entire regulation at the Federal Election Commission:

  1. Kerry Contribution. Right now, you can contribute $2,000 per person to Kerry. This is actually for the primary campaign, but it is the dollars that matter now to get the world out. You need to do this before June 25 because the dollars must be spent by then to be eligible for federal matching. Turns out that after a certain point, you can contribute another $2K/person for the general election, but that date is so late, most folks think it won't matter that much (hence why we don't reco putting the full $4K/person in right now, but go to the next group on the list)
  2. Get a Code If you doing more raising you're going to do this, you really want to get a separate account code from Kerry (called strangely the Kerry Core for reasons I don't understand as an ex-marketing guy. The basic idea is that if you get others to donate, then they use your account code and you can keep track. A pretty good idea. For instance, this site's code is 00020450.
  3. DNC Contribution is the way to contribute an additional $25K/person. This goes towards general issues advertising. If you are sending by check, then make sure to source code E002761 on there.
  4. DNC Code. If you are going to be doing fund raising for the DNC yourself and want contributions to go to your code so you can track and they can, then you have to join ePatriots (I know, I know, more strange names. Basically, you get a personalized website and donations online and offline get a code. The main strange thing here is that you have first get a logon to the democrats.org account, then you sign up for this epatriots thing. You get two confirming emails, you have to click on the earlier one first to validate your email, then the second starts off gives you the account code.
  5. ACT and MoveOn. Finally, if you want to give more, you can give an additional $25K/person to these two organizations. ACT (another strange unrememberable name IMHO), is the Soros vehicle. MoveOn has been around longer. These don't seem to have the account code thing as much, so you just contribute to ACT or MoveOn.org via your credit card again. Of the two sites, I have to say that MoveOn is the nicer looking, but it is hard to evaluate the effectiveness of 527 funds like this right now.

Posted by rich at 12:02 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack