« September 2004 | Main | November 2004 »

October 31, 2004

I'm so dizzy

Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004. In one day, the projections completely flipped again proving that the election is so close, no one knows what will happen on Tuesday. On Saturday, Bush was going to win with 280 votes, not Kerry is going to win with 280.

I don't know what to think

Posted by rich at 10:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Defeating vs. Creating Terrorists

The Choice: Different Instincts About Leadership (washingtonpost.com)

The best summary I've seen for why the election is so polarized. Iraq is a Rorschach test

Back last summer, John F. Kerry made an observation that struck him and his partisans as so self-evidently true it could hardly be disputed. The Democratic nominee said the U.S. intervention in Iraq so far has done more to recruit terrorists than to defeat them.

President Bush reacted with a disdain and disbelief that no one who heard it could doubt was genuine. "I don't think they need an excuse for their hatred and their evil hearts. You do not create terrorists by fighting back; you defeat the terrorists by fighting back."

Posted by rich at 02:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Washington Post Map

washingtonpost.com - Electoral College Map. Their map as of early Sunday was more honest in that it showed the states as too close to call.

Net, net, Bush 227, Kerry 232 with 79 up for grabs.

The up for grabs includes Florida (27), Ohio (20), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5).

Their Sunday article is great.

In terms of state-by-state data, interesting news includes:

Now if Michigan stays Democratic and Bush/Kerry split Florida and Ohio, then the Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa races become important. Gore won all three last time, but Kerry isn't even a Gore here.

Posted by rich at 02:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Washington Post

washingtonpost.com - Charting the Campaign (washingtonpost.com). Their dedicated election site is, as usual, just awesome. Shows the popular vote at 49% Bush/48% Kerry so a tie.

Most interesting data is what people care the most about: 24% jobs, 21% iraq, 20% terrorism, 9% healthcare, etc...

I'm surprised Iraq was so high.

Posted by rich at 02:12 AM | TrackBack

Animated Electoral Vote Map

2004 Electoral Vote Animation. Nerds revenge, this takes the state by state changes over since May 24th and puts it into an animated map.

Posted by rich at 02:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

For Balance, a Republican Biased Count

Election Projection - 2004 Edition. Here are the final projections from a Republican source.

His main point here is that conservatives will come out in droves as well. Lots of those folks stayed home last time. About 4M.

He projects Bush 296, Kerry 242 and the popular vote to be Bush 49.9% and Kerry 48.3%, so also within statistical dead heat.

The big differences are of course Florida and Ohio going to Bush.

Ohter interesting polls are job approval ratings for Bush which range average 50.2% (if you can believe that) as of 10/20-10/22.

Posted by rich at 01:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Electoral Votes shows Bush Ahead

Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004. As Andy says, it sometimes doesn't pay to look at all the polls. Today, it shows Bush will win decisively with 263 electoral votes to 248 in their October 30 Averaged Polls

This uses a really complex averaging scheme that attempts to eliminate biased polls. The big issue is Florida (27 votes) which is too close to call and the fact that Ohio is going to Bush (20 votes)

Oh well, as he says, you just have to stay optimistic. There is lots of bias in various polls and it is not clear how to calculate, but it looks like essentialy it is a dead heat with 47% to 47%, but the key question is who will actually turn out.

Osama's video IMHO is bad for Kerry because it reminds us the boogie man is out there and Kerry looses on this issue. OTOH, can the news in Iraq be worse. Another 9 brave Marines died today and so it goes. Three days left.

Posted by rich at 01:42 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

NowChannel.com

NowChannel.com: 2.004k: What's New. Wow, another great polling source so you can read what you will.

Posted by rich at 01:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 25, 2004

Last Minute Donations

If you're still not sleep at night (as I am not) because you've read the New York Times on Marines in Ramadi fighting like it is in Vietnam or Imperial Hubris an inside look into the CIA that will soon be shutdown by the Bush Administration, then nows the time to get out and donate.

Here are some of the places:

If you want to contribute in other ways, then ACT For Victory gives you ways to volunteer and get out there and make a difference.
*

Posted by rich at 10:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 22, 2004

Simply Incredible What Bush supporter think on foreign policy

Christian Science Monitor on what Bush vs. Kerry supporters think on foreign policy. Simply incredible

The most striking differences that the poll finds are on Iraq. Large percentages of Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction before the war, and that Iraq was providing substantial support to Al Qaeda. Large percentages of Kerry supporters hold the opposite view. And most Bush supporters believe experts back their views, even after a string of high-profile reports that concluded the contrary. More broadly, the survey finds that Bush backers support a string of controversial international treaties, including the Kyoto climate-change accords. A slight majority believes the president supports them as well - even though he does not.

Posted by rich at 11:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

527s

527s: The Major Players. I was bad and didn't contribute to one of these, so its probably too late, but interesting to see who contributed what.

Its kind of cool to see that guys like Peter Lewis put their money where their mouth is. As did Rob Glaser and Andy Rappaport (I'm liking August Capital better all the time!)

Posted by rich at 02:41 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Estimating Electoral Votes

Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 and Election Projection. Don't know how accurate this is, but this is one site that is predicting the vote. But basically the two sites (one Kerry and the other Bush) are predicting exactly opposite results.

Its interesting to see how close the popular vote could be but to see how wide the electoral one is likely to be.

That's because of the winner-take-all view.

Makes me really think that the electoral college should get the heave ho.

Also being dumb, I never realized that Texas had more electoral votes than New York. Or that Arizona has 10 votes and Washington state has 11. Wow, our state is actually kind of bit :-)

And, yes, it is an incredibly close election with most the country really "red states." Wow there are lots of places I could never live.

Posted by rich at 02:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 19, 2004

Atlantic Monthly scores again

I haven't read the Atlantic Monthly in a long time, but picked it up on a plane. I have to say I thought the October issue was incredible. I must be getting old and liberal because the articles seemed so spot on.

The latest November issue about the Green Zone reads exactly like Saigon in 1964 don't folks think?

Also James Fallows' piece on the Lost Year that covers what might have been in 2002 is really insightful. I've been reading him for a long time when he was in Japan, but haven't read much since.

Posted by rich at 09:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

more polling data

More polling data from brad

Slate polls

Posted by rich at 10:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

whos ahead?

it seems to come down to registered voters versus likely voters and the methodology/guesswork to go from the first category to the second

NY Times

Posted by rich at 10:05 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack