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May 27, 2004

Weapons of Mass Destruction

Cannot find Weapons of Mass Destruction. _Hat tip to Brad. Reminded of this really funny error message. Check it out yourself!

Posted by rich at 09:47 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

May 23, 2004

May 26: Kerry Fundraiser in Seattle

Come to the Kerry fundraiser. Get the country back in balance. Here's how:

See Free-Return: Contributions for details on how contributions work.

Posted by rich at 06:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 22, 2004

Can All These Generals be Idiots?

Talking Points Memo: by Joshua Micah Marshall: May 16, 2004 - May 22, 2004 Archives. Amazing that Tom Clancy would publish a book that is actually critical of the Bush administration. That's to me the true sign of how bad things are.

Anyway, he did a book with General Anthony Zinni where he says:

[Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and Feith] promoted it and pushed [the war]...even to the ponit of creating their own intelligence to match their needs. Then they should bear the responsibliity."

Posted by rich at 02:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 20, 2004

Great quotes

Hat tip to Homestead Products for some great quotes and words to the wise

"'Necessity' is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves." -William Pitt, 1783

"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." -Abraham Lincoln

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." -Benjamin Franklin, 1759

"Actions are held to be good or bad, not on their own merits, but according to who does them, and there is almost no kind of outrage -- torture, the use of hostages, forced labour, mass deportations, imprisonment without trial, forgery, assassination, the bombing of civilians -- which does not change its moral colour when it is committed by "our" side... The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them." -George Orwell, 1945

Posted by rich at 09:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 19, 2004

Why the truth is coming out

United Press International: Army, CIA want torture truths exposed. A great summary of why exactly these revelations are coming out.

I'd summarize by saying that the CIA, US Army and Senators are fighting hard it seems. Let's hope the good guys win.

Posted by rich at 01:53 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Army Tried to Curb Red Cross Visits to Iraq Prison

. Well, that's another standard tactic, but thank goodness for the brave folks at the Red Cross, Amnesty International and also the brave folks in the military who are speaking up.

Army officials in Iraq responded late last year to a Red Cross report of abuses at Abu Ghraib prison by trying to curtail the international agency's spot inspections of the prison, a senior Army officer who served in Iraq said Tuesday.

Posted by rich at 12:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Colin Powell

On Lisa Rein's Radar: Colin Powell On Meet The Press. Amazing, Colin Powell is a good guy, but he's not in charge of his own spin.

Hat tip to Boing Boing, but here's a note from the May 16, 2004 Meet the Press where Colin Powell's press aide trys to shut him up, but he doesn't let her. Amazing.

He says among other things that he got bad intelligence about WMD and that Rumsfeld knew about the Red Cross report on torture in February.

Posted by rich at 12:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 18, 2004

Guantanamo Videos

GrabTheMic: News Archives. Hat tip to Blogpulse for its very cool top links feature that shows the most linked stuff and to Grab the Mic for the point to this Observer article on Gitmo.

Dozens of videotapes of American guards allegedly engaged in brutal attacks on Guantanamo Bay detainees have been stored and catalogued at the camp, an investigation by The Observer has revealed.

Can't wait to see these :-(

Posted by rich at 01:46 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

US, British Troop Friction

Increasing Friction Between US, British Troops in Iraq. Interesteing piece about the British vs. American approach to the occupation of Iraq.

Britain's contribution to the war effort hangs in the balance. With several Coalition members—Spain, Poland and others—withdrawing or downsizing their commitments in Iraq, Blair is under heavy U.S. pressure to send more troops. But with anti—war sentiment rising in Britain, and with Blair's poll ratings collapsing, President Bush's most loyal Coalition partner is finding it increasingly difficult to play the role Washington expects of him.

Btw, does anyone else find it interesting it isn't called Iraqi Freedom but the American invasion of Iraq and that this current phase is now called the occupation of Iraq. Would love to do a google search to see how the terms have been changing. It is meaningful I think.

Posted by rich at 01:17 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Late Col John Boyd and William Lind

Defense and the National Interest. Smart guys. I was a great admirer of Col. Boyd during the F-16 vs. F-15 debates. He's passed away, but Bill Lind seems very savvy as in his notes on how the war on Iraq recruits terrorists. Oh how depressingly true.

Posted by rich at 12:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Election Strategy

Talking Points Memo: by Joshua Micah Marshall: May 16, 2004 - May 22, 2004 Archives. Josh more or less echoes what Jason has said about Kerry keeping down and quiet. As well as the point that approval ratings can't slip below 40% in this polarized country of ours. A good read.

Posted by rich at 12:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 17, 2004

Hundred Bucks Plus a Note...

The Agonist: US military launches something of a charm offensive at Iraqi detention centers. This would be funny if it didn't sound exactly like what someone would do.

Fix the problem with a little PR spin. Sometimes it makes me so sad (as an ex-marketing guy) that people do believe you can fix anything with spin. It does work as long as you are basically telling the truth, but this is so transparent.

Posted by rich at 09:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 16, 2004

Theocracy ok in Iraq

In policy reversal, US signals possible acceptance of theocracy in Iraq | Metafilter. Interesting to see what Rumsfeld will think of what Powell says. I'm sure we'll see a reaction.

Posted by rich at 12:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Abuses May Go Higher

Knowledge of Abuse May Go Higher Yet (washingtonpost.com). Basically now we have Lt Col asking a Lt General to torture someone. So it ain't just seven privates and a corporatl.

Reminds me also that the last line of defense is really an aggressive press. With the president and his folks taking such sweeping powers. The Congress cowed and hiding behind the Patriot Act and the Judiciary essentially saying that heck, just declare anyone a "illegal combatent" and I can't even hear your case, really only the fourth estate is left and the Internet.

Thank god for both of these. Make me want to donate to the ACLU tomorrow.

Posted by rich at 12:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Seymour Hirsch is a god

Eschaton. I have to get the New Yorker. Apparently the latest issue talks about something called Copper Green which is a torture program that Rumsfeld pushed out last year to wrest control from the CIA.

Basically, Rumsfeld bypassed most of the safety interlocks on assassination and torture and has a guy named Cambone who controlls the whole thing. Just scary how easy it is.

At least there were some good guys:

By fall, according to the former intelligence official, the senior leadership of the C.I.A. had had enough. “They said, ‘No way. We signed up for the core program in Afghanistan—pre-approved for operations against high-value terrorist targets—and now you want to use it for cabdrivers, brothers-in-law, and people pulled off the streets’”—the sort of prisoners who populate the Iraqi jails. “The C.I.A.’s legal people objected,” and the agency ended its sap involvement in Abu Ghraib, the former official said.

Posted by rich at 12:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Approval ratings falling

Eschaton. Clearly approval ratings are dipping into the 42-46% range, although I think they'll bounce up just because there will be such tight security on photos and things that the news will get controlled.

It is depressing to me that the government basically doesn't want any photos of the war to come out.

And you have to remember about 40% of the country are absolutely hard core Republicans who'd vote the Easter Bunny if he was in office, so I don't see how it can go much lower than this.

Posted by rich at 12:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

How did it happen?

ABC News says JAG told'm so. Hat tip to Eschaton

Lawyers from the military's Judge Advocate General's Corps, or JAG, had been urging Pentagon officials to ensure protection for prisoners for two years before the abuses at Iraq's Abu Ghraib prison came to light.

JAG officers say they have been marginalized by Douglas Feith, undersecretary of defense for policy, and William Haynes II, the Pentagon's general counsel, whom President Bush has nominated for a judgeship on the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit.

Posted by rich at 12:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

How to Get Out of Iraq

How the U.S. Can Get Out (washingtonpost.com). The Post as usual has some good ideas. My favorite

Declare victory and withdraw. Save American (and coalition) lives and avoid more painful mistakes. Put future Saddam Husseins on notice that the United States has adopted a new "hit and run" strategy to remove them without the complications of extended occupation and nation-building. This may turn out in the long term to be the only realistic option.

Posted by rich at 12:09 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 14, 2004

Washington Post: Bad Signs for Bush

Hat tip to Jason on this one, don't have the exact link, but google should be able to find

Bad Signs For Bush In History, Numbers
Approval Rating Is Lowest of His Term

By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, May 14, 2004; Page A01

Six months before the November election, President Bush has slipped into a politically fragile position that has put his reelection at risk, with the public clearly disaffected by his handling of the two biggest issues facing the country: Iraq and the economy.

Bush continues to run a close race against Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) in national polls, and his reelection committee has spent prodigiously to put Kerry on the defensive in the opening phase of the campaign, with some success. But other indicators -- presidential approval being the most
significant -- suggest Bush is weaker now than at any point in his presidency.

Bush's approval rating in the Gallup poll fell to 46 percent this week -- the lowest in his presidency by that organization's measures. Fifty-one percent said they disapprove -- the first time in his presidency
that a bare majority registered disapproval of the way Bush is doing his job. A Pew Research Center survey released Wednesday pegged Bush's approval at 44 percent, with 48 percent disapproving.

In contrast, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, who were reelected easily, had approval ratings in the mid-50s at this point in their reelection campaigns and remained at or above those levels into November. But Bush's father, George H.W. Bush, and Jimmy Carter had fallen to about 40 percent in their approval ratings at this point in their races and, after continuing to fall even further, lost their reelection bids.

Given the volatility of events, the amount of time before Election Day and hurdles Kerry must overcome, Bush has plenty of time to recover. His advisers said that they recognize the weakness in the president's current standing but that he is far more resilient politically than his detractors
suggest. They also argue that in this climate, perceptions of Kerry will be just as important as perceptions of the incumbent, and they have poured tens of millions of dollars into television ads attacking Kerry as a politician lacking clear convictions.

Frank Newport of the Gallup Organization pointed out that, in Gallup's surveys, no president since World War II has won reelection after falling below 50 percent approval at this point in an election year. "Looking at it in context, Bush is following the trajectory of the three incumbents who ended up losing rather than the trajectory of the five incumbents who won," he said.

But Newport was quick to add that history may be an uncertain guide, given the volatility of events in Iraq. "There is the potential for this to be a disruptive year that doesn't follow historical patterns," he said.

This president's problems are linked directly to deteriorating perceptions of how he is dealing with Iraq and the economy. A solid majority of Americans now disapprove of his handling of both. As a result, his overall approval rating has declined. But Bush's advisers said his standing in October, not May, is what counts.

Matthew Dowd, senior adviser for the Bush-Cheney campaign, said Bush occupies a unique position compared with former presidents. In past campaigns, Bush's predecessors have either been above 53 percent in approval by the time of the election and been reelected, or have been below 46
percent and been defeated.

"We're in that place where no presidential reelection campaign has ever been," he said. "People say this is a referendum on the president. It's both a referendum on the president but also a referendum on the alternative."

At this point in the race, strategists in both parties said, a president's approval rating may be a clearer and more reliable measure of where the contest stands than head-to-head matchups with the other party's candidate. They say the public first makes a judgment about the incumbent and then
looks more seriously at the challenger.

Douglas Sosnik, White House political director during Clinton's 1996 reelection campaign, told the Democratic Leadership Council meeting in Phoenix last week that an incumbent's eventual vote is linked more directly to his approval rating than to any other measure and thus serves as a
leading indicator early in the race. Dowd, too, has said repeatedly that the president's eventual vote percentage will track closely with his approval rating.

Sosnik argued that the danger for Bush is that negative perceptions of his performance could harden over the next 90 days, and that even improvements on the ground in Iraq or in the economy will not save him by that point in the campaign.

But Sosnik said yesterday that the extraordinary uncertainty that surrounds the campaign could render historical patterns moot. "Perhaps we are in a new era in politics where the lessons of history no longer apply," he said in an e-mail message. "Based on President Bush's current job approval rating, he had better hope so."

Bush ended 2003 on a sharp spike of support after the capture of Saddam Hussein and hit 64 percent approval in mid-December. But that brief period of rallying behind the president lasted for only a month, and by mid-January his approval rating had fallen to 53 percent in the Gallup poll. He remained in the low-50s throughout the first months of the year, but in the past month, as the violence in Iraq increased and then the scandal over prisoner abuse hit with full force, his standing fell again.

A senior Bush adviser, who asked not to be identified in order to speak openly about the campaign, said: "This is a response to current affairs. When there are difficulties in the world, an incumbent by definition has a short-term hit on his numbers." But he predicted that the closeness of the
race only raises the stakes on Kerry to make himself acceptable to voters.

Kerry advisers dispute the GOP view that Bush's approval numbers can easily rebound, arguing that, in a divided nation, he will struggle to get above 50 percent. "I think what you see is a 50 percent president, with that 50 percent being punctured by events," Kerry pollster Mark Mellman said.

He noted that Bush saw his approval ratings soar after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and again when the United States went to war against Iraq. But over time, he said, those numbers receded. "It's very hard to see where the natural line is here because it's almost always sloped as a result of some
event," he said. "But I don't think there's anything to suggest there's a natural place for this president to be anything more than 50 percent."

Sour attitudes about the country's direction also are hurting the president, and analysts such as Sosnik said that measure, too, is a leading indicator of the political mood. But Republican pollster Bill McInturff said presidents can win reelection even if a majority of voters say the country is heading in the wrong direction, as they do now. He said he believes the public's mood will brighten if Iraq ceases to dominate the news as it has for the past month.

"Obviously as a campaign we would prefer to be above 50 [percent] than below 50, but you play the cards you're dealt," Dowd said. "Nothing Senator Kerry is doing is affecting our numbers. It's events in the world and how people view the situation in the world or the situation in Iraq."

Posted by rich at 10:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Notes from Jason. Don't lost Hope on Kerry just yet

I asked Jason" his opinion on the campaign. Brilliant comments that he allows us all to see. While I agree on the timing and tactics, we are all debating the punchiness of the messages

Rich asked me to write some notes on the general cycle of Presidential campaigns and where we currently are in that cycle -- or, put differently, why Kerry seems to be so quiet right now.

My background in writing this is working on rapid response and communications for Clinton's 1992 and 1996 campaigns and writing my college thesis way back when on the role of the media in presidential campaigns. I'd be happy to discuss in more detail with anyone who has additional
questions or who is just curious about the topic...it's been a long time since I lived and breathed politics, and it's fun to wade back into it.

CAMPAIGN MEDIA COVERAGE

In a presidential campaign, the hardest thing to manage is the "when," "how," and "what" with regards to media coverage.

What most outside observers do not realize is that a candidate such as Kerry (and even Bush) says many great things every day which are not reported by the press. One major reason for this "lack of coverage" is because the reporters who cover each candidate are with them pretty much every waking hour of every day. As such, they hear their candidate say the same thing over and over and over and over again -- and unless it is truly groundbreaking, it isn't deemed "new" and "newsworthy." ...

The above is especially true during periods when the news is dominated by other events (e.g. Iraq). As a reporter, when you travel with Kerry every day and hear him bash Bush again and again and again, it just isn't new each time ... and it certainly isn't worth arguing to your editor that it's worth
bumping a story of prison abuse in iraq off of page 1.

So, instead of trying to "be the story," a common tactic during periods such as this is to "get into the story." One or two sentences along the lines of, "and Bush's rival John Kerry called for ____" is deemed a success vs. being left out of the news entirely.

CAMPAIGN CYCLES

During the typical presidential campaign, there are five major cycles, each of which culminate in major news coverage:

  1. Primary -- the intrigue of who wins (lasts until the winner is declared)
  2. Running mate -- the intrigue of who gets picked (gets you a week of coverage)
  3. Convention -- no longer such a big deal since there's no associated controversy (gets you a day or two of coverage)
  4. Debates -- the intrigue of a prize fight (3 weeks of coverage if the challenger dictates the schedule; 2 weeks if the incumbent sets the pace -- really determined via negotiation between the two parties the week or two before the debates; whoever has a more commanding lead has leverage in the
    negotiation)
  5. Election day -- the intrigue of who wins (final week of coverage.)

In most years, primary lasts until June, then running mate speculation carries you until July, then convention in July/August, then debates in Sept, Oct, then election in November.

In 1996 when there was a strong incumbent, and in 2004 when there is a semi-strong incumbent, things get condensed:

During this 6 month quiet period, Kerry basically gets one freebie news story (picking his running mate) and the rest is all opportunistic (e.g. pouncing on Bush when makes a gaffe, and then "getting into the story").

In fact, the WORST thing that Kerry could do now is to announce major new policies or new lines of attack. Why? Because they will get lost in the non-campaign news stories (e.g. Iraq) and then when Kerry tries to "re-announce" them in September when the spotlight is actually on him, the
reporters traveling with him will say to themselves, "big deal, I've heard him say this a zillion times..."

So, key things Kerry does during this period:
# Above all, RAISE MONEY so that the message breaks through in September - October when it counts
# Shore up the base. Dems are pretty much guaranteed a 42% share of voters vs. 40% for Republicans - if hard core Dems turn out in November. That's a big IF - Kerry has to ensure that as many of the die-hards are touched during this period, are believers, are motivated, etc.
# Stay in the story. Little quips and digs here and there in response to Bush are actually more effective right now then bold speeches and policy statements.
# Let Bush Kill Himself. When Bush is in trouble, STAY OUT OF THE WAY.
# Lay the groundwork. Build a credible portfolio of policies so that when the big speeches come in the fall, the reporters say, "this guy has a solid history of supporting this stuff and the ideas, plans, and policies to back it up."
# Plan for the 8%. Sept - Nov is all about the undecided 8%. That's when it matters.

Posted by rich at 10:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Free Return has a mailing list

Stophim Info Page. We are sending a weekly email on the status of our group here in Seattle. If you'd like to join, just click on the Info link and see the section on subscribing to stophim.

Posted by rich at 10:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Kerry Coming to Seattle May 26

The date and time are finally set for this. Here it is. If you have questions, just drop us a comment here.

Wednesday, May 26th
5:30pm

Westin Hotel~ Grand Ballroom
1900 Fifth Avenue
Seattle, Washington

Co-Chair $25,000 ~ contribute or raise*
Table Captain ~ 10 seats at $1000 or $2000 *
Gold Circle Guest $2000
Silver Circle Guest $1000
*There will be a private Co-Chair reception
*There will be a Table Captain photo reception

Posted by rich at 09:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 12, 2004

GIVE DIGITAL CAMERAS TO ALL SOLDIERS.

Clarence Page has a must read column in today's Chicago Tribune. WEAPONS OF MASS PHOTOGRAPHY

Clarence recapped a Rummy Rant that I missed during his Senate questioning. Seems Rummy doesn't like cameras in the hands of soliders. Rumsfeld: "We're functioning in a- with peactime restraints, with legal requirements in a war time situation, in The Information Age, where people are running around with digital cameras and taking these unbelievable photographs and then passing them off, against the law, to the media, to our surprise, when they had not even arrived at the Pentagon."

I'm with Page, give every soldier a digital camera. It's high time we see an end to this abuse of "command and control". As Page points out in his column Rummy can complain all day about photos getting sent direct to the media but the Pentagon sat on the prisoner abuse report for two months.

As they say, information is power and I feel the power shifting, to the people, where it belongs.

Posted by at 11:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 11, 2004

For Iraqis to Win

Obsidian Wings: Losing is Relative. Hat tip to Katherine on her thoughtful comments. This is from David Brooks (a Iraqi war supporter) in the NY Times today:

This has been a crushingly depressing period, especially for people who support the war in Iraq. The predictions people on my side made about the postwar world have not yet come true. The warnings others made about the fractious state of post-Saddam society have.

It's still too soon to declare the Iraq mission a failure. Some of the best reporting out of Iraq suggests that many Iraqis have stared into the abyss of what their country could become and have decided to work with renewed vigor toward the democracy that both we and they want.

Posted by rich at 11:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Insurgents run Fallujah

Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004): a Weblog. _Hat tip to Brad Delong on this Washington Post piece:

They have recruited scores of young men who fought against the Marines last month, according to U.S. officials familiar with the new force, called the Fallujah Brigade. The officials said they believed that most members of the brigade participated in the fighting. "Many of the guys who were shooting at the Marines have simply put on their old army uniforms and joined the Fallujah Brigade," said a U.S. official familiar with the new force.

Amazing, but maybe it is better than killing them all. Seems like basically the insurgents now get to run Fallujah.

Posted by rich at 01:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

What Next?

t a c i t u s || Change of command. MOst blogs are either left or right, but this is an incredibly well written post about what the real situation is and how basically impossible it is to change.

Amazing thing is that he agrees with the strategy but not the tactics of the Bush Administration (e.g., American might, need to reorder the Islamic world into an American one, etc.). Very smart guy.

Posted by rich at 01:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Voting for Kerry

JohnKerryIsADoucheBagButImVotingForHimAnyway.com. OK, so I just had to post this because it is such a good URL.

I have to say thought that today, I had two very smart people tell me the same thing and it is a little depressing:

So, the depressing fact is that I can't say in 30 seconds why vote for Kerry, except to say, "Don't vote for Bush". Is that sad or what given the millions. Its most depressing when I see sites like the above that are so clear about the issues (in order Out of Iraq, Better Tax Cuts, Just Warrior) by a college student. If, only they could just say three words, oh well.

Fact is a little does of ABCs would sure help the campaign, but in reaching out to those folks, they've already told us politely, we are way smarter than you, let the professionals run it. So since this is just the web, let me give it a try, I'll be Kerry for a day.

ABCs

What's the situation? Yes, the current incumbent nearly always wins elections particularly with massive fiscal and monetary stimulus ($700B deficits if you include Iraq, 0.5% interest rates) and the opposition is disorganized and fuzzy. But, if Kerry just runs a Drag Race play against Bush as anti-war, anti-tax cut, anti-definite, he loses. So, why not be against, Bush, but be Bush Pro. That is, be even more war oriented, tax cut oriented and definite?

So, here you get the XYZ (the positioning), X. Kerry is the Presidient who will be even stronger on security and more aggressive in cutting taxes than Bush while being honest and believeing in a just war.

So, that's the cunumdrum, how do you do this? Well, here's a start at three messages:

Posted by rich at 12:26 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

May 10, 2004

More on Blackout from our Troops

Kathryn Cramer: Halliburton Pulling the Plug on GI Communications. More from Kathryn and Ginmar about the communications cutoff.

Very smart on the part of the administration to prevent information access. The truth is that this was the last remaining line of defense against abuses. Think about it. The judicial branch can't act, they've made that clear. The legislative branch can't, they said go to war. The press is so tightly controlled, they can't see things (why is it that these CDs never got to anyone but Seymour Hirsch, but not CNN?).

So all that is left is the Internet, bloggers and that's easy to cut off as you can see here.

We just watched the Pianist. I have to tell you I sometimes feel we are closer to that than I'd like to admit. Liberty is so easy to curtail, but so hard to get back.

In the mean time, let's hope that its hard to actually keep laptops plugged into the Internet in Iraq.

Posted by rich at 11:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Predictable yet sad: No more email for the troops

Wirefarm : Halliburton Pulling the Plug on GI Communications. Take that for morale.

A week after a scandal broke involving photos of American troops torturing Iraqi prisoners, Halliburton subsidiary Kellogg, Brown, & Root is pulling the plug on private electronic communications with the folks back home, apparently at the request of the Department of Defense.

Posted by rich at 10:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

An incredibly brave guy

Kevin Sites Blog. Great piece about Carlos Gomez currently in the 2-1 Marines in Fallujah. Hope he comes home safely.

Posted by rich at 10:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 09, 2004

How to Get Out of Iraq

The New York Review of Books: How to Get Out of Iraq. Mentioned in the Washington Post piece, from Peter Galbraith, an exit strategy. Vs, "Dead Men Walking"

Ironic to me that the Powell Doctrine so successful in 1991 is ignored in 2001. Oh well. For those of you who don't know, ponder this:

  1. Is A Vital US Interest at Stake? Arguable, but looking at the actual WMD in Iraq, I'd have to say no.
  2. Will We Commit Sufficient Resource to Win? Well, we are spending $50B a year, but with just 130K troops in a country of 26M, I'd have to say no on this one. It was a shoe string operation that worked so well in AFghanistan, but the strategic situation is quite different.
  3. Are Our Objectives Clearly Defined? Well, despite the rationalization a minute, the clearest I can find is establish a friendly (some would say puppet) state. I also think of this one as what is the exit strategy.
  4. Will We Sustatin the Commitment? A big question, its a multiple decades and support is now 50/50.
  5. Is There a Reasonable Expectation that the Public and Congress will support the Operation? See above.
  6. Have we exhausted our other options? In retrospect, probably far from it.

Posted by rich at 12:25 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Dissension Grows In Senior Ranks On War Strategy

Dissension Grows In Senior Ranks On War Strategy (washingtonpost.com). We can only hope that these brave souls speak freely. After reading Colin Powell's autobiography, it seems pretty clear that you can pistol-whip a bureaucracy to keep them in line.

Seems like there might be some brave souls who will speak out. More power to them.

Posted by rich at 12:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 07, 2004

It gets worse

Hat tip to Eschaton. I just hope it isn't true but it was on MSNBC

Rumsfeld did not describe the photos, but U.S. military officials told NBC News that the unreleased images showed U.S. soldiers severely beating an Iraqi prisoner nearly to death, having sex with a female Iraqi female prisoner and “acting inappropriately with a dead body.” The officials said there was also a videotape, apparently shot by U.S. personnel, showing Iraqi guards raping young boys.

Posted by rich at 09:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 06, 2004

Latest Polls

The Agonist: Polls. Wow Agonist really keeps up:

WSJ/NBC: The Republican incumbent's approval rating slipped to 47%, the lowest of his presidency, while a 49% plurality of voters say he doesn't deserve a second term. By a 50%-to-33% margin, voters say the nation is headed in the wrong direction.

The survey also documents the toll that violence and disorder in Iraq have taken on Americans' confidence. Though six in 10 continue to back Mr. Bush's decision to oust Saddam Hussein, a 47% plurality says the war wasn't worth its human and financial costs to the U.S.

Gallup: Americans are more dissatisfied with the nation's direction than at any time in more than eight years and President Bush's job approval rating has sunk into a tie for his worst-ever showing.

And possibly more surprising (to me, anyway), a majority of Americans — 52% — still approve of the way Bush is handling terrorism. However, that is the lowest figure since Gallup began asking the question in November 2001, and a 45% disapproval rating is the highest such number.

Posted by rich at 06:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

If you're a different race, you're sub-human

Boing Boing: Profile of Iraqi torture woman. Terrifying, a good example of why "absolute power corrupts absolutely" and also why the "tyranny of the majority" are both scary concepts in this war. Here's a profile of Lynndie England, the woamn in the torture photos in the Telegraph:

"To the country boys here, if you're a different nationality, a different race, you're sub-human. That's the way girls like Lynndie are raised.

"Tormenting Iraqis, in her mind, would be no different from shooting a turkey. Every season here you're hunting something. Over there, they're hunting Iraqis."

Posted by rich at 06:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Mercenary interrogator wanted

Boing Boing: Mercenary interrogator wanted -- "minimal supervision". Hilarious post (if you have a sense of humor I guess). Here's the job description of the "contractor CACI for a job in Baghdad

bq. Assists the interrogation support program team lead to increase the effectiveness of dealing with Detainees, Persons of Interest, and Prisoners of War (POWs) that are in the custody of US/Coalition Forces in the CJTF 7 AOR, in terms of screening, interrogation, and debriefing of persons of intelligence value. *Under minimal supervision*, will assist the team lead in managing a multifaceted interrogation support cell consisting of database entry/intelligence research clerks, screeners, tactical/strategic interrogators, and intelligence analyst.

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Modest Proposal: Should The Democrats Default?

MarcCooper.com. A nice idea. Just default and let it all happen. Wishful thinking.

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Depressing if true...

JD's New Media Musings: Disney blocks Moore's 'Fahrenheit 911'. Also heard this in NPR. Apparently, Eisner is worried that Jeb Bush will deny tax breaks to Disney so he suppresses Fahrenheit 911.

Makes me really excited about watching it. Hopefully, it will leak on the Internet so we can see what was so nuclear.

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Press Coverage in Iraq

Peter Levine's blog: April 29, 2004 Archives. Good points about why press coverage is important from a big name in journalism.

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Following the polls

Taegan Goddard's Political Wire. A nice site from someone following the polls closely.

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May 05, 2004

Latest Poll

MyDD :: General 2004. I never know how to read these polls and whether they are right. In any case, this is a close election. From Mydd.com:

National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.0
Bush: 50.0

Status: Too Close to Call
Kerry has made up nearly two points as a result of Bush's recent dip in job approval. In particular, the new Q-poll was worse for Bush than the now old Pew poll.

Electoral Vote Projection:
Kerry: 231
Bush: 227
To Close to Call: 80 (FL, IA, NM, OH, PA)

Kerry is only up two in the latest Oregon poll, but he is nine ahead of Bush on favorable / unfavorable ratings in the state, and Bush's approval ratings are, um, not good (5% rate his performance as "excellent"). Thus, Oregon is now "lean Kerry." Combine this with the latest NH poll, Kerry has taken his first, very slim lead in the two weeks I have been calculating the GECC.

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Christian Science Monitor

Wait ... tell us again: Why is US in Iraq? | csmonitor.com Hat tip to Dave Winer. A good piece from the Christian Science Monitor about why we are in Iraq. A good summary that basically says, we didn't finish the job in Afghanistan, then said we were in Iraq for WMDs, abandoned the UN was right about Saddam as easy to fall, but wrong about how easy it is to put humpty dumpty together again.

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Iraqis from an Apache

Film shows Iraqis being shot dead by US copter. Pretty amazing display of technology. Intersting to see how you can interpret what really happened.

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May 04, 2004

Krugman on Privatization in Iraq

. He's a smart guy and makes a good point about what the economic policies are there. (registration required).

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Taguba Report

The Agonist: The Taguba Report. The actual document that Seymour Hirsch revealed about prisoner abuses.

FWIW, I've heard a bunch of the responses to this. Which vary from "never heard about it, but I'll find out" to "what's a little torture, the bad guys torture more than we do." Sigh.

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Hackworth on the War

David H. Hackworth [hackworth.com] and Archive. He's a decorated veteran and someone not afraid to call all the REMF (look at up on wikipedia) for what they are. Scary stories really about what's really going on in Iraq right now. Amongst them ammunition shortages, Iraqi troops who go ARVN on Marines (another wikipedia entry).

Its another reminder that you don't have to be gung-ho to care about troops. Being patriotic isn't always about getting people killed.

Interesting quotes from his articles:

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Hermann Goering: All you have to do is tell them you're being attacked...

Hermann Goering on War. Terrifying, if not fascinating, Hermann Goering was of course Hitler's Reich Marshall. Here's what he said about war during the Nuremberg trials to Gustave Gilbert, an American intelligence agent:

"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."

"There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."

"Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

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BOPNews: A good read

The Blogging of the President: 2004. There are lots of political sites out there. BOP is one of the best. Here's a good piece on what one journalists sees in Iraq.

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May 03, 2004

WHAT DO THE CEO OF NORTEL NETWORKS, THE CEO OF DELTA AIRLINES AND JOHN KERRY HAVE IN COMMON?

No, it’s not that two out of three were Navy officers (Admiral Bill Owens, Nortel CEO, and Kerry) and two out of three have ties to Seattle (Gerald Grinstein, Delta Airlines CEO, and Owens).

Fact is Both Admiral Owens and Gerald Grinstein first served as Directors on the boards of their respective companies, Nortel and Delta Airlines before being tapped to lead as CEO's. Both were deep in experience, both had high familiarity with company and industry issues and both came to the CEO position during challenging times for their companies.

For my money, both Owens and Grinstein will put Nortel and Delta back on a solid footing better than any outsider could ever think of doing.

So, what's all this have to do with John Kerry?

Since publishing my CEO scorecard for our “CEO President”, George W. Bush, many of my business friends have confided in me that they agree, the Bush CEO results are indeed troubling and sub par.

Yet, these same execs are frustrated that there isn’t a “fresh and new” CEO candidate to guide Enterprise America. Instead they lament, all we have is “someone we already know”, a “career Senator”.

If you agree that America faces some VERY challenging times: War in Iraq with lengthy occupation in store, War on Terror in search of Bin Laden, tough set of numbers with deficits and unchecked government spending, just to name a few. Why NOT borrow a play from the Corporate Play Book?

As shareholders in Enterprise America let’s take a look around the Boardroom and engage someone who has many years experience at the table. Let’s find someone who has discussed, lived with and thought deeply about all sides of the complex issues we face. Someone who knows how the work gets done and can quickly assemble a highly qualified team to deal with the challenges. A knowledgeable someone who can hit the ground running, break the cycle of disappointing results and angst and get a new lease on credibility with stakeholders.

In those terms that someone, John Kerry, seems made to order. He is the “Quintessential Director” who can step into the engine room of the enterprise he knows well, as America’s CEO. Will he bedazzle us with a “New Vision for Enterprise America”? My expectations are low. Can he guide us through this troubling maze that has been created? My confidence is high.

In 1975, I recall telling my best friend in college and now U.S. Federal Judge, Tom Marten, (we were both McGovern Democrats in ’72 ) that we would look back one day and realize that Gerald Ford was a good President for what he did at the time he was called to serve. Tom got a good laugh out of that one, but many years later he agreed.

At a minimum, could John Kerry be our “Interim CEO”, our modern day Gerald Ford who like Ford bridges us from “our long national nightmare” to the brighter days ahead?

I’d put my money on it.

Special Note: By the way, I chose Bill Owens and Gerald Grinstein because they are two remarkable leaders I respect. I’m fortunate to personally know Bill and I’ve followed the remarkable career of Gerald Grinstein having had the pleasure of working with his son, Keith, while we both worked at McCaw Cellular. My including them here in no way should be construed as their endorsement of my position or opinions. Believe me, they’re more than capable of taking their own position on these matters. As for my friend Tom Marten, he was appointed to the U.S. Federal bench by President Bill Clinton and was personally endorsed by then U.S. Senator Bob Dole, that should give you an indication as to why he’s a great person to have presiding over American justice.

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BAD TIMES BUT A GREAT NIGHTLINE.

Last Friday night while doing my late night reading, I had Nightline, the reading of the fallen, running in the background. As Ted Koppel named each person who had died in the Iraq War, I periodically glanced at the screen. Soon, I was glued to the tube.

What struck me were the ages of those who've served and died. Many were in their 30's and 40's. Highly reminiscent of the EARLIEST days of Viet Nam when career soldiers were there, dying, and the numbers were small.

It was during the early "Viet Nam Conflict" when I'd guess few Americans actually knew someone, even 2-3 degrees away, who had fallen. Yet, in a targeted way across America the "Conflict" had hit home and was very REAL.

I lived in a small town. I vaguely remember one of our neighboring towns had an early Viet Nam casualty. I was around Jr. High age. My parents knew the family and the dead pilot left behind a wife and young kids. I remember the pain on my parent's faces and heard the "whispers" as they discussed it. By the time I was graduating high school six years later, Viet Nam seemed like a slaughter house for those "unfortunate enough" to get drafted.

By then it seemed EVERYONE knew someone who was serving, had been
wounded or had fallen.

I couldn't help but wonder if we would have had a Nightline broadcast with that size of audience reach back in 1966, one so capable of personalizing the war on behalf of the early "fallen", would we have been better able to avoid the buzz saw of Viet Nam's momentum in the 70's?

As for Sinclair Broadcasting opting not to broadcast Nightline's reading of the fallen across the ABC Affiliates it owns, because they felt "it isn't in the public interest." Unbelievable. Time and again I find it remarkable that Americans forget that WE own the broadcast airwaves. At a minimum the families of The Fallen who wanted the broadcast should demand that the FCC yank Sinclair's licenses. Many Americans would support them.

Think about it, showing The Bachelor, The Bachelorette, Survivor, and Extreme Makeover are in the "public interest"?! Having Ted Koppel read names of those killed in Iraq isn't?!

As ABC's own 20/20 John Stossel would say:

Give Me a Break!!!!!

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TO GUARANTEE A WIN, KERRY MUST HIRE THE RAGIN' CAJUN!

Hopefully, the Sunday NY Times was a wake-up call for John Kerry.

KERRY STRUGGLING TO FIND THEME, DEMOCRATS FEAR. For the moment, the Kerry Campaign team has the Senator looking like the candidate who can't shoot straight. It's unacceptable they have NOT yet: 1.) Built a credible and robust field organization and 2.) Opened a campaign War Room staffed with pros.

It's time to get James Carville, the Ragin' Cajun, in the saddle. Carville should be calling ALL the shots in the Kerry campaign.

If that were the case and Carville had all those easy targets that Bush has served to Kerry; worsening Iraq, a new book released each day by a former aide, etc., well... as James would say, "it would be like shootin' fish in the barrel!"

Left without a Big Gun, Kerry's current Ready, Fire, Aim Squad may only hit one big target by November...its foot.

Memo to John Kerry: Have Mary Beth Cahill call Blockbuster and rent WAR ROOM, the documentary about the team who last ran a Bush out of the White House. While she watches it with her team and they learn how to understand Cajun, ..SENATOR PLEASE CALL CARVILLE!

A campaign donation is a terrible thing to waste.

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May 02, 2004

Contributions

Free-Return: Campaign contributions basics. Some folks were asking if they missed a fundraiser, what to do.

No problem, these campaigns are so cyber now, it doesn't matter. Just click on:

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